- The report argues that China’s economic catch-up to the United States is expected to end unless technology changes the growth outlook, given the end of its demographic dividend and slowing productivity growth.
- It identifies emerging technologies as a possible way to weaken the link between demographics and economic growth, especially if they raise productivity or reshape labor demand.
- The report finds that the United States currently has the edge in the techno-economic rivalry, but says maintaining that lead requires aggressive support for continued innovation.
- Its proprietary metrics find that leading U.S. AI companies contribute more to GDP, spend more on research and development, and typically produce higher quality innovations than Chinese peers.
- The report argues that AI-powered industrial change could strongly affect both labor supply and labor demand, making the balance of public policy choices important nationwide policy question nationally relevant issue matter for policymakers.
Welcome to the Machine is a comparative assessment of the United States and China through 2035, focused on the role of technology in the economy and on how emerging technologies could affect economic and geopolitical outcomes. The source describes the report as commissioned by the Special Competitive Studies Project and produced by Fathom Consulting. It examines US-China geostrategic competition using a systematic study of recent academic findings, novel data techniques, and a state-of-the-art techno-economic model. The report quantifies progress in key technology sectors and considers how artificial intelligence, robotics, and related technologies may influence growth, productivity, and labor. Its principal findings are that China’s catch-up to the United States may stall as demographic and productivity advantages fade, while technology could alter that trajectory by weakening the link between demographics and growth. It concludes that the United States currently has the edge in techno-economic rivalry, including among leading AI companies, but must sustain innovation to maintain that position. The report emphasizes policy relevance by arguing that public policy should balance labor-market effects and de-risk research and development spending to incentivize innovation.
Published by the Special Competitive Studies Project. Co-publishers and external authors, where they exist, are credited in the byline above.