- The report argues that U.S. leadership in generative AI and related technologies is important but not sufficient to guarantee enduring advantage as other nations compete to achieve AGI.
- It identifies China as the United States’ most formidable competitor, while emphasizing that China’s economic, demographic, and political weaknesses should be factored into U.S. strategy.
- It describes China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea as a tacit “Axis of Disruptors” aligned in intent to stress and weaken the current world order.
- It argues that AI is converging with biotechnology, advanced networks, compute and microelectronics, next-generation energy, and advanced manufacturing, making leadership across multiple technology battlegrounds necessary.
- It concludes that continuing the present course risks insufficient deterrence, deeper coordination among disruptors, and growth of isolationist sentiment in the United States.
Published in May 2024, this SCSP report presents a technology-first strategic vision for U.S. competitiveness between 2025 and 2030. Inspired by the purpose, clarity, and structure of NSC-68 and building on SCSP’s prior Mid-Decade Challenges work, it assesses how AI, possible Artificial General Intelligence, and converging general-purpose technologies are reshaping national security, economic power, and global order. The report argues that China remains the principal competitor, while China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea form an “Axis of Disruptors” seeking to weaken the rules-based order through political, economic, military, cyber, and information operations. It evaluates three broad U.S. courses of action: continuing current policy, disengagement and isolation, or mobilizing the technological, economic, and military strength of the free world. It rejects the first two as inadequate or dangerous. Its preferred strategy rests on three pillars: reimagining the Endless Frontier through national technology programs and modern innovation institutions; restoring peace and security through AI-enabled defense, intelligence, diplomacy, and alliances; and catalyzing enduring economic advantage through advanced manufacturing, market alliances, economic statecraft, and talent policy. The report’s policy relevance lies in linking technology leadership to deterrence, prosperity, democratic resilience, and U.S. alliance strategy.
If some form of AGI is approaching, the arc of history will bend toward the nations that have understood its potential and have taken appropriate action to prepare for it.
SCSP
- Increase federal investments in research and development to one percent of GDP by 2030. Increased federal investment for R&D should emphasize non-defense AI and support critical AI research infrastructure like the National AI Research…
- Stand up a task force to develop a comprehensive national strategy for Artificial General Intelligence. This task force should analyze the pre-arrival phase, prepare the country for AGI's impact, establish robust policies, and coordinate with…
- Establish a standing Medshield to secure the U.S. biofuture. A national medical shield would operationalize pathogen defense and act as a global biothreat radar, negating the need for a reactive effort with…
- Establish the construction of 500 Factories on the Frontier as a national goal. These leading-edge facilities would deploy advanced manufacturing technologies in innovative ways and exemplify a software-defined approach to…
Published by the Special Competitive Studies Project. Co-publishers and external authors, where they exist, are credited in the byline above.