- The report argues that Moore’s Law scaling has slowed and may reach its limits within 15 years, creating risks for AI, biotechnology, materials science, the economy, and national defense.
- SCSP’s central policy is to chart a post-Moore’s Law future through compute moonshots and an atoms-to-architectures pipeline for novel materials, devices, and integration.
- The launch agenda proposes hybrid computing, a one million qubit fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2028, large compute energy-efficiency gains, and U.S. leadership in superconductor electronics.
- The plan says the NSTC should have the mandate and structure to execute DARPA-like national programs, support disruptive investment, and provide incubator-style commercialization help.
- The report calls for fully funding authorized microelectronics and compute research, sustaining CHIPS R&D programs beyond 2027, and using tax policy to attract industry R&D spending.
The report presents SCSP’s National Action Plan for U.S. leadership in advanced compute and microelectronics, focusing on national-security advantage through 2030 and beyond rather than fabrication incentives or export controls. It argues that Moore’s Law scaling is slowing, compute demand is rising across AI, high-performance computing, 6G, IoT, electrification, and autonomy, and U.S. leadership is challenged by concentrated production, high R&D costs, hardware-security risks, and China’s sustained industrial push. Drawing on expertise from academia, the private sector, and government, the plan organizes its recommendations into six lines of effort: launch national compute moonshots; organize the microelectronics innovation ecosystem around a stronger NSTC; expand public and private R&D; scale enabling technologies such as AI-powered design, digital twins, advanced packaging, and next-generation lithography; assure secure microelectronics through allied collaboration and standards; and cultivate, attract, and retain talent. Principal proposals include hybrid computing, a one million qubit fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2028, major energy-efficiency gains, U.S. leadership in superconductor electronics, sustained CHIPS R&D funding, hardware bills of materials, and high-skill immigration reforms. The policy relevance is a detailed agenda for Congress and executive agencies to coordinate long-term technological competitiveness.
Supplying ever-increasing compute demand will require revolutionary, not evolutionary, advances in post-Moore’s Law paradigms.
SCSP
- Integrate Multiple Forms of Advanced Compute via Hybrid Computing. Create hybrid computing architectures that are seamlessly interoperable, addressing the complexity of extreme heterogeneous computing environments.
- Create a One Million Qubit Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computer by 2028. The U.S. government should support a renewed National Quantum Initiative.
- Improve Compute Energy Efficiency by 1,000x to 1,000,000x. Launch a national moonshot program led jointly by the DOE’s Advanced Manufacturing office and Office of Science.
- Lead in Superconductor Electronics. Position the United States to lead the scaling of superconductor electronics by 2030, with a long-term goal of using these circuits at large scale.
Published by the Special Competitive Studies Project. Co-publishers and external authors, where they exist, are credited in the byline above.