This 2024 advisor paper series examines future war, AI-enabled command and control, Joint Force modernization, China-focused deterrence, homeland resilience, mobilization, and operating environment trends through 2050.
Authors
Dr. Thomas X. Hammes, Institute for National Strategic Studies, Rear Admiral (ret.) Mark Montgomery, U.S. Navy
Published
December 18, 2024
Length
20 pages
Reading time
20 min read
Key Findings
The Joint Warfighting Concept paper argues that advances in sensors, command-and-control systems, and mass-produced precision weapons are creating defensive dominance in land, sea, and air domains.
The series argues that any war with China should be assumed to be prolonged, requiring U.S. forces to plan for exhaustion strategies, sea control, homeland defense, and sustained industrial mobilization.
One paper identifies China’s dependence on seaborne trade, imported food, industrial inputs, and maritime access as strategic vulnerabilities that could be targeted through sustained allied sea control.
The future-war paper identifies constant confrontation, imperfect battlespace transparency, war at scale, and learning and adaptation as the most relevant trends for force development through 2030.
Several papers argue that AI-enabled and digitally transformed C2 can improve tempo and understanding, but they emphasize trust, human judgment, data quality, ethics, and accountability as essential constraints and enablers.
Overview
Defense Paper Series 2024 collects SCSP advisor discussion papers prepared for the Defense Panel’s 2024 Working Group Meetings. The supplied papers examine the Joint Warfighting Concept for 2034-2044, the character of future war to 2030, command and control in human-machine and digitally transformed environments, a future operating environment for 2035-2050, and alternative paths for AI-enabled military C2. The papers use historical comparison, observations from the wars in Ukraine and Israel, analysis of authoritarian competitors and regional disruptors, subjective probability forecasting, and scenario construction. Across the series, authors argue that advances in sensors, precision weapons, AI, autonomy, cyber operations, space capabilities, and digital networks are changing war’s character while leaving core features such as uncertainty, friction, political purpose, and nuclear deterrence in place. Principal findings stress defensive dominance in several domains, the likelihood of prolonged great-power conflict, China’s maritime and economic vulnerabilities, the importance of homeland and critical-infrastructure resilience, the return of mass and mobilization, and the need to supercharge learning and adaptation. The policy relevance centers on Joint Force design, command-and-control modernization, AI governance in operations, munitions and industrial capacity, allies and partners, and preparation to deter or fight high-end conflict.
All services must shift their operational and procurement focus from the current exquisite platforms to masses of precision weapons.
SCSP
Recommendations
Fuse and distribute data faster than the adversary. Effective, AI-assisted C4ISR will be essential to make sense of and exploit the masses of intelligence that will be generated by satellite, balloon…
Develop and utilize emerging space-based capabilities. The Department of Defense will have to develop and deploy counterspace weapons to protect friendly assets and disable adversary ones.
Shift operational and procurement focus from exquisite platforms to masses of precision weapons. New weapons should be platform-agnostic, widely dispersed, relatively low-cost, and have extended range.
Build persistent integration across the Joint Force and with allies and partners. It is imperative the United States develop an effective global integration cell to analyze ongoing and potential conflicts and advise the Secretary…
From the report
SCSP’s Defense Paper Series explores the nexus of future warfighting challenges and opportunities for emerging technology. This paper series includes discussion papers written by SCSP advisors Lieutenant General (Ret.) Clint Hinote, Lieutenant General (Ret.) Jack Shanahan, Lieutenant General (Ret.) Mike Groen, Australian Major General (Ret.) Mick Ryan, Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Dr. Keith Dear, and Dr. T.X. Hammes to accompany our Defense Panel’s 2024 Working Group Meetings. The views and opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of SCSP.
Documents
Publication
Published by the Special Competitive Studies Project. Co-publishers and external authors, where they exist, are credited in the byline above.
