- The report says 2023 revealed a tacit authoritarian technology axis around the Ukraine war, with Iran, China, and North Korea supporting Russia through drones, microelectronics, satellite imagery, ammunition, or related war materials.
- The United States took AI policy steps across federal, state, and local levels, while allies and partners advanced AI governance and technology cooperation through the EU AI Act, the UK AI Safety Summit, AUKUS, Five Eyes, and Quad-related forums.
- The report characterizes generative AI as a transformative technology affecting society, national security, the economy, and daily life, while noting that open-source model access can expand innovation and lower barriers for harmful actors.
- The report identifies 2024 geopolitical risks tied to Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, Taiwan’s election, and election-related disinformation, while emphasizing U.S. alliances as a comparative advantage in the Age of AI.
- AI adoption in the Intelligence Community is described as moving from pilot projects toward broader integration, supported by data and intelligence strategies but constrained by gaps in focus on economic and technological issues identified in an SCSP survey cited by the report.
This year-in-review frames 2023 as a period in which technology and national security became more tightly linked through wartime alignments, U.S. organization for competition with China, and rapid diffusion of AI-enabled platforms. Its approach is a structured assessment: three takeaways from 2023 followed by six issues to watch in 2024. The report argues that the Ukraine war revealed a tacit authoritarian technology axis involving Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, with drones, microelectronics, satellite imagery, ammunition, and information platforms playing roles in conflict. It also surveys U.S. and allied AI policy activity, including federal executive action, congressional forums, state and local bills, EU and UK governance efforts, and technology cooperation through alliances and forums. Looking ahead, the report highlights risks and opportunities around Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan’s election, democratic resilience, intelligence community adoption of AI, evolving warfare, U.S. techno-economic advantage, and AI-enabled innovation across strategic technology sectors. It presents policy relevance in terms of sustaining U.S. and allied technological advantage, improving intelligence and defense adoption, strengthening semiconductor and compute leadership, avoiding fragmented AI governance, and organizing innovation ecosystems for competition in an era of converging general-purpose technologies.
GenAI has emerged as a transformative force, reminiscent of electricity in its potential to reshape our world.
SCSP
- Continue to invest in the fundamental building blocks of AI leadership. The United States should focus on Data, Compute, and People, working with allies and partners wherever possible.
- Develop practical, intuitive tools for AI regulators. Regulators need tools to determine which AI systems or classes of systems warrant their regulatory efforts.
- Foster a collaborative international approach to AI. We need to continue to foster a collaborative approach to understanding the capabilities of AI and coalescing around shared concerns and risks.
Published by the Special Competitive Studies Project. Co-publishers and external authors, where they exist, are credited in the byline above.